The mismatch is a rate-and-timing problem: total available volume may be adequate while the delivery window or field peak makes it difficult to use.
A canal delivery schedule and a field application schedule are governed by different infrastructure and operating constraints.
That distinction matters because irrigation decisions cross several boundaries: a water record becomes a physical delivery, a delivery becomes a hydraulic condition, and that condition becomes a root-zone response. A number at one boundary cannot automatically prove performance at the next.
The mechanisms to keep visible.
Canal capacity and ordering rules shape incoming flow.
Crop demand varies daily while scheduled irrigation concentrates application.
On-farm storage can buffer timing but adds capacity, loss, water-quality, and energy questions.
Turn the pain point into a defined operating question.
Plot source deliveries and field withdrawals on the same time axis before sizing a buffer or changing operation.
Start with the decision the analysis must support. Then identify the smallest set of inputs capable of changing that decision. Keep source facts, calculations, model outputs, estimates, and operator observations distinct throughout the workflow.
Make the result reviewable.
Record delivery windows, rates, reliability, crop demand, application window, losses, and reserve.
What this analysis cannot establish by itself.
Scenario results do not predict future CAP availability or replace current operating information.
SIM treats an honest limitation as part of the result. Where evidence is incomplete, the correct status is inconclusive or unverified—not a more confident sentence.